Article Sidebar

PDF
Date Published: 10/08/2018
Online Published: 27/06/2023
Abstract Views: 89
Views PDF: 178
DOI: https://doi.org/10.52714/dthu.33.8.2018.606
Issue
No. 33 (2018): Part A - Social Sciences and Humanities
Section
Social Sciences and Humanities Issue (Vietnamese)
How to Cite
Pham, T. H. (2023). Applying the early warning logit model for predicting currency crisis in Viet Nam. Dong Thap University Journal of Science, 33, 45-52. https://doi.org/10.52714/dthu.33.8.2018.606

Applying the early warning logit model for predicting currency crisis in Viet Nam

The Hien Pham1,
1 T&H Company Limited

Main Article Content

Abstract

Vietnam has been among South-East Asian economies successfully warding off previous currency crises. For monitoring and maintaining stable macrofinance development, this paper based on international and national research results is to apply the Logit model of predicting currency crises in Vietnam. It has selected the best currency crisis predictors for Vietnam in the period from January 2008 to December 2016. Finally, the paper gives a number of implications for policies as well as strengthening curency crisis predictions in Vietnam of further research.

Article Details

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

Keywords

Early warning system, currency crisis, indicator variables, logit model

References

 [1]. Berg and Pattillo (1999), “Predicting Currency Crises: The Indicators approach and an Alternative”, Journal of International Money and Finance, No. 14, p. 561-586.
[2]. Breuer, J. B., (2004), “An exegesis on currency and banking crises”, Journal of Economic Surveys, No. 18, p. 293-320.
[3]. Calvo. A., C. M. Reinhart and C.A. Végh (1995), “Target the real exchange rate: theory and evidence”, Journal of Development Economics, No. 47-1, p. 97-133.
[4]. Comelli, F. (2014), “Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies”, IMF Working Paper, No. 14 (65), p. 1-24.
[5]. Eichengreen, Rose and Wyplosz (1996), “Contagious Currency Crises: First Test”, Scadinavian Journal of Economics, Vol. 98, No. 4, p. 463-484.
[6]. Flood and Garber (1984), “Collapsing exchange rate regime: some linear examples”, Journal of International Economics, No. 17, p. 1-13.
[7]. Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999), “The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance of Payments Problems”, American Economic Association, Vol. 89, No. 3, p. 473-500.
[8]. Krugman, P. (1979), “A model of balance of payments crises”, Journal of Money - Credit and Banking, No. 11, p. 311-325.
[9]. Nguyễn Phi Lân (2011), “Mô hình cảnh báo sớm và chính sách hướng tới ổn định kinh tế vĩ mô”, Tạp chí Ngân hàng, Số 2 & 3 - 2011, tr. 27- 32.
[10]. Nguyễn Thị Mỹ Phượng (2016), “So sánh hệ thống cảnh báo sớm khủng hoảng tiền tệ tại Việt Nam theo cách tiếp cận tham số và phi tham số”, Tạp chí Phát triển Khoa học & Công nghệ, Tập 19, số Q3 - 2016, tr. 71-85.
[11]. Obstfeld, M. (1996), “Models of currency crises with self - fulfilling features”, European Economic Review, No. 40, p. 1037-1047.
[12]. Ủy ban Kinh tế của Quốc hội (2013), Giám sát hệ thống tài chính: Chỉ tiêu và mô hình định lượng, NXB Tri Thức.